Inland Empire Rents Buck National Cooling Trend, New Mid-Year 2026 Report Shows
The Numbers Behind the Divergence
By BRIAN BEAN
Rental Home Advocate | Property Manager | Real Estate Broker
Riverside, CA — While single-family rental prices are softening across most of the country, a new mid-year market report shows the Inland Empire is holding steady, with the majority of local cities posting continued, albeit slower, rent growth.
The findings come from Rentometer’s U.S. Single-Family Rental Market Report: Mid-Year 2026, released July 13, which tracked median asking rents for 3-bedroom single-family homes across 1,099 cities nationwide during the first half of the year.
The National Picture
Nationally, the median single-family rent fell to $2,100 in the first half of 2026, down 1.6 percent from a year earlier — the first sustained national decline in single-family rents since the post-pandemic rental boom. The slowdown was pronounced enough that rents failed to rise at all between the first and second quarters, despite the period covering the traditionally strong spring and early summer leasing season.
Nearly half of the markets tracked — 49 percent — recorded year-over-year rent declines, with the weakness concentrated in larger cities. Overall U.S. rental vacancy, as tracked by the Census Bureau, climbed to 7.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, the highest level since 2017.
Rentometer’s report ties the broader softening in rents to several converging supply-side forces: elevated apartment construction, growing competition from build-to-rent communities, an increase in leasing concessions, and a wave of “accidental landlords,” homeowners who couldn’t sell and chose to rent instead, adding previously for-sale homes to the pool of available rentals.
The Pacific region posted the steepest decline of any region in the country, with median rents down 3.2 percent year-over-year to $3,195. Only the Rocky Mountains region posted growth, a modest 0.3 percent. The swing in the Pacific region has been dramatic: As recently as the first half of 2025, the region was posting growth of 3.1 percent year-over-year. The flip from growth to decline in the span of a single year underscores just how quickly conditions have shifted along the West Coast.
California Remains Among the Priciest — But the Picture Is Mixed
California continued to rank among the nation’s most expensive rental markets, with a statewide median single-family rent of $3,450, trailing only Hawaii and Washington, D.C. (both $3,800) and Massachusetts ($3,600).
The state’s performance is far from uniform, however. Coastal tech hubs bucked the broader Pacific slowdown entirely: San Francisco (+5.7 percent) and San Jose (+5.9 percent) posted some of the strongest rent growth of any large U.S. city, part of a broader resurgence across Silicon Valley and the San Francisco Peninsula, with cities such as Sunnyvale (+11.1 percent) and Berkeley (+10.0 percent) posting double-digit gains.
Meanwhile, many of the pandemic-era boomtowns across the Sun Belt continued to cool, with cities such as Phoenix (-2.2 percent), Dallas (-2.2 percent), and Tampa (-3.2 percent) posting notable declines.
The Inland Empire: A Contrarian Story
Against that backdrop, the Inland Empire stands out. Comparing Rentometer data across three consecutive reporting periods — full-year 2024, the first half of 2025, and the first half of 2026 — shows overall growth in the region.
Of the 16 Riverside and San Bernardino county cities with complete data across all three periods, 12 posted net rent gains during the two-year span, even as the national market turned negative.
Chino Hills led the region with an 8.3 percent increase since 2024, followed by Menifee (+4.6 percent), San Bernardino (+3.5 percent), Moreno Valley (+3.4 percent), and Corona (+2.7 percent). Only four cities in this group — Chino, Temecula, Murrieta, and Victorville — posted net declines during the same two-year span, and each was modest, in the 1 percent to 3 percent range.
| City | 2024 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | 2-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chino Hills | $3,416 | $3,500 | $3,700 | +8.3% |
| Menifee | $3,057 | $3,200 | $3,199 | +4.6% |
| San Bernardino | $2,706 | $2,700 | $2,800 | +3.5% |
| Moreno Valley | $2,830 | $2,810 | $2,925 | +3.4% |
| Corona | $3,409 | $3,300 | $3,500 | +2.7% |
| Rancho Cucamonga | $3,315 | $3,300 | $3,400 | +2.6% |
| Hemet | $2,491 | $2,599 | $2,550 | +2.4% |
| Ontario | $3,197 | $3,300 | $3,250 | +1.7% |
| Riverside | $3,096 | $3,150 | $3,150 | +1.7% |
| Fontana | $3,096 | $3,195 | $3,150 | +1.7% |
| Redlands | $2,977 | $3,095 | $3,000 | +0.8% |
| Lake Elsinore | $2,929 | $2,862 | $2,950 | +0.7% |
| Murrieta | $3,106 | $3,000 | $3,082 | -0.8% |
| Victorville | $2,371 | $2,300 | $2,350 | -0.9% |
| Temecula | $3,267 | $3,200 | $3,200 | -2.1% |
| Chino | $3,358 | $3,300 | $3,275 | -2.5% |
A handful of additional cities — Rialto, Wildomar, Perris, Hesperia, and Apple Valley — only have complete Rentometer data going back to 2025. Comparing just the most recent year, Rialto stands out with 6.7 percent growth from 2025 to 2026, while Hesperia was the region’s one notable decliner over that same single-year window, down 4.1 percent.
Market Velocity
Supply and Demand continue to determine price and speed of sale.
The Rentometer report cites overall national rental vacancy at 7.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
The increase in available rentals coincided with 16.9 percent of apartment units offering move-in concessions, according to RealPage, and 40 percent of Zillow listings advertising concessions to combat flagging demand.
Meanwhile, “accidental landlord” listings – properties that had been previously and unsuccessfully listed for sale – reached 2.3 percent of Zillow’s for-rent listings, Rentometer reported.
In the Inland Empire, the available supply of rental homes increased in 2025 from the previous year before drifting lower again in 2026, according to figures from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service. And demand kept pace or accelerated.
“Days on market” — how long a property sits before finding a renter — appears to have reacted during that timeframe. Countywide, days on market increased by about 10 percent this year from June 2024, CRMLS shows. And prices predictably followed suit – the average price of a closed lease decreased this year from 2025 and 2024.
| Metric | Riverside County | San Bernardino County |
|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | ||
| June 2024 | 2,862 | 912 |
| June 2025 | 3,143 | 1,019 |
| June 2026 | 2,383 | 758 |
| 2-Year Change | -16.7% | -16.9% |
| Closed Leases | ||
| June 2024 | 443 | 326 |
| June 2025 | 467 | 386 |
| June 2026 | 439 | 322 |
| 2-Year Change | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| Days on Market | ||
| June 2024 | 19 | 20 |
| June 2025 | 19 | 24 |
| June 2026 | 21 | 22 |
| 2-Year Change | +10.5% | +10.0% |
| Signed Lease Prices | ||
| June 2024 | $2,995 | $2,900 |
| June 2025 | $3,200 | $3,000 |
| June 2026 | $2,900 | $2,895 |
| 2-Year Change | -3.2% | -0.17% |
Taken together, the numbers point to a fairly clear supply-and-demand story: Increased inventory in 2025 gave renters more options and more leverage, which slowed the market and increased the time it took to find approved renters. Landlords reduced prices in response.
This year, that softening market appears to have prompted a correction on the Inland Empire supply side. Inventory is down significantly this year, possibly as overpriced or slow-moving listings were withdrawn, repriced, or simply worked through the system. That could result in faster leasing and higher rent prices going forward.
Real Estate is Local
County-level figures in the Inland Empire span a massive geographic region and dozens of disparate cities with vastly different personalities and price points.
Real estate is inherently local, driven by factors such as proximity to jobs, shopping and services, income strata, school scores, crime rates, physical beauty, and even social stigma.
City-by-city data tell nuanced and detailed stories about many Inland Empire cities. Below are days-on-market figures for several Inland cities:
| City | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreno Valley | 29 | 22 | 17 | -41.4% |
| Chino | 27 | 20 | 18 | -33.3% |
| Temecula | 16 | 16 | 12 | -25% |
| San Bernardino | 32 | 26 | 25 | -21.9% |
| Chino Hills | 15 | 22 | 13 | -13.3% |
| Murrieta | 15 | 22 | 13 | -13.3% |
| Riverside | 29 | 25 | 27 | -6.9% |
| Redlands | 15 | 18 | 14 | -6.7% |
| Rancho Cucamonga | 21 | 17 | 23 | +9.5% |
| Menifee | 16 | 17 | 19 | +18.8% |
| Corona | 14 | 13 | 18 | +28.6% |
| Fontana | 15 | 33 | 21 | +40% |
| Hemet | 25 | 41 | 37 | +48% |
| Victorville | 17 | 33 | 28 | +64.7% |
| Lake Elsinore | 19 | 19 | 33 | +73.6% |
| Ontario | 17 | 28 | 30 | +76.4% |
Exactly half the cities tracked saw days on market decrease, meaning faster leasing for available properties during the two-year span, while the other half saw the opposite, a genuine mixed picture.
The combination of increasing rents paired with faster leasing occurred in Moreno Valley and San Bernardino, both of which posted solid two-year rent gains alongside meaningfully faster leasing times. Those cities are traditionally considered more affordable locations in the Inland Empire.
In Chino Hills, the region’s rent growth leader at +8.3 percent the past two years, days on market decreased 13.3 percent. The city’s proximity to the Los Angeles metro area and its reputation for strong schools could help explain why it continues to outperform much of the area on both measures, despite the higher price point for the region.
Nearby Ontario, meanwhile, saw only modest rent growth the past two years alongside a 76.4 percent increase in days on market — the steepest slowdown in leasing velocity of any city tracked. Despite its proximity for L.A. commuters and a much lower average rent price than Chino Hills, it may suffer from its reputation as a regional logistics center and industrial concentration.
And outlying locations such as Lake Elsinore, Victorville, and Hemet may have contributed to days-on-market climb by more than 60 percent with slight drops in rent or nominal increases that did not keep pace with consumer inflation.
Bottom line: Location clearly affects the demand side of the market.
What It Means for Local Investors
The Inland Empire remains a shining star for real estate investment, with among the strongest rent price increases in the country. But affordability remains a concern as recent data indicate the rapid price growth since the recovery began in 2011 has cooled across the region, stalled in some cities, and even declined in a few.
Investors already in the market have benefited from historical appreciation and performance. But current home prices and accompanying rent levels make it difficult for new investors to find suitable investment opportunities. At the same time, renters continue to struggle to afford, or in some cases even qualify for, current market rents, which has contributed to the rent price cooling.
While actual price statistics show the record for what occurred in the past, days on market is a leading indicator that could signal future market performance. Cities with increasing days on market are likely to experience lower rent prices, while high-demand areas with more demand and faster sales are likely to see continued price inflation.
In either instance, affordability and economic uncertainty favor renter retention and lease renewals over testing the market for higher rents. Vacancy remains the largest expense for rental investors who must change occupants in a year.
For more information about local trends in your rental market, contact us directly at Dream Big Property Management, 951-314-5402, brian@dreambigpm.com.
You can also find valuable information on our website: dreambigpm.com.
*** Primary source — Rentometer:
U.S. Single-Family Rental Market Report: Mid-Year 2026,” published July 13, 2026. Rentometer’s report tracks median asking rents for 3-bedroom single-family rentals across 1,099 U.S. cities, based on advertised rent data collected between January 1 and June 30, 2026, compared with the same period in 2025.
https://www.rentometer.com/2026-mid-year-single-family-rental-market-report
*** Prior-year comparison — Rentometer:
Mid-Year Report 2025: National Trends in Single-Family Rental Markets
https://www.rentometer.com/rentometer-mid-year-report-2025-national-trends-in-single-family-rental-markets
*** 2024 baseline data — Rentometer:
National Single-Family Rentals Report: Insights and Trends for 2024
https://www.rentometer.com/rentometer-national-single-family-rentals-report-insights-and-trends-for-2024
** County and city-level inventory, closed leases, days-on-market, and signed lease price data:
California Regional Multiple Listing Service (CRMLS) — proprietary data from local MLS.
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Full Transcript
Transcript of “Inland Empire Rental Market: Bucking the National Trend | Mid-Year 2026 Report,” featuring Brian Bean of Dream Big Property Management. CA DRE #01346382. Lightly edited for readability.
Nationwide, rent prices just posted their first real slowdown since the pandemic boom. Here in the Inland Empire, most of our cities are still on the upswing. I’m going to tell you why, and which stat you should focus on going forward.
Hi, I’m Brian Bean with Dream Big Property Management here in Riverside, California. We help people just like you become intentional rental property investors. A report released this month shows the median rent dropped 1.6% nationally compared with a year ago. That’s the first real national rent decline since the pandemic boom six years ago. Nearly half of all markets in the country saw rents go down.
Why? Well, the report points to a variety of reasons: more apartments getting built, more build-to-rent communities, more landlords offering move-in concessions, and a wave of accidental landlords — homeowners who couldn’t sell, so they rented their places out instead. And of course, affordability, after a decade-plus of rent price increases. All of that and more contributed to an increase in the supply of housing and a decrease in the demand from prospective renters.
Those two factors, supply and demand, will always be the ultimate driving force. But here’s the thing: those factors vary from region to region, from state to state, city to city, even neighborhood to neighborhood. Because real estate is local, and the supply and demand can be vastly different even a block away from another house.
So although the national figures finally tipped into the negative as a whole, that’s not the story in Southern California. Here in the Inland Empire, most of our cities are still experiencing rent price growth. Chino Hills, for example, posted an 8% increase over the past two years. Menifee, San Bernardino, Moreno Valley and Corona also posted solid gains. A handful of cities did dip slightly — Chino, Temecula, Murrieta and Victorville — by 1 to 3% since June 2024, fairly flat overall. So rents here continue to be more stable than almost anywhere else in the country.
The question is, where will they go from here? The national report from Rentometer provides data on three-bedroom single-family homes in more than 1,000 cities across the country, but it doesn’t get into the real causes and early indicators for each city. We pulled city and county data from CRMLS — that’s our local MLS — to get a better picture of the local market. How many rental homes were available? How many were actually leased? How long did they sit on the market? And what did they ultimately rent for? Countywide, rents were mostly flat. City by city, though, we found some big swings. By the way, we’ll include links in the show notes to the reports.
So we looked back two years in the Inland Empire, and here’s what we found. In June 2025, the number of available rental homes in Riverside and San Bernardino counties actually jumped up from the previous years. More inventory hit the market. And a year later, we saw the consequences: homes taking longer to lease, rent prices actually declining slightly.
That’s economics 101, by the way. Supply and demand determine price and speed to lease. Prices are the lagging indicator of what got us there. Available inventory versus the number of applicants affects how fast or slow a home leases, and those are the leading indicators that tell us where the market is headed in the short term.
So half the cities in the Inland Empire appear poised for price reductions, and half are likely to keep right on climbing — like Riverside, Moreno Valley, San Bernardino, Redlands and Chino Hills. Hot markets, which in the past two years saw rents rise and lease faster, and most probably in Chino, Temecula and Murrieta, where days on market in June this year are down as much as 33% from two years ago. With rents close to flat in the past year for those cities, they’re poised for a run.
But in some cities, increasing inventory and decreasing demand points more toward rent price reductions going forward. Cities like Ontario, Lake Elsinore, Victorville, Fontana and Hemet have seen days on market balloon by as much as 76% the past few years. Even Corona and Menifee, which have seen strong price gains, may have hit a tipping point, as days on market are up 19 to 28%.
So what does this mean for you as a property owner? If you’re in a city with rising rents and fast leasing, that’s good news — but it’s not a green light to push rent as high as possible. If you’re in a market where days on market is climbing, that’s an early signal worth paying attention to, well before it shows up in your actual rent numbers anyway.
But really, conditions can change pretty quickly. And in an economic environment where affordability is at an all-time low, vacancy is the biggest threat to profitability — which means resident retention and lease renewals win the day.
If you have questions about your local rental market, or anything related to the right and profitable way to run your rental property, call me directly at 951-314-5402. I’m happy to share. You can also find valuable information on our website, dreambigpm.com. And if you found this info useful, we have more — check it out. Punch that subscribe button, leave us a review; it helps others find us, and we’ll alert you when new episodes are posted.
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